Archive for the ‘economix’ Category

Why the economy isn’t coming back soon (for us)

Monday, July 26th, 2010

But it will for them. To wit:

By most measures, Harley-Davidson has been having a rough ride.

Motorcycle sales are falling in 2010, as they have for each of the last three years. The company does not expect a turnaround anytime soon.

But despite that drought, Harley’s profits are rising — soaring, in fact. Last week, Harley reported a $71 million profit in the second quarter, more than triple what it earned a year ago.

How could that possibly be, you ask?

This seeming contradiction — falling sales and rising profits — is one reason the mood on Wall Street is so much more buoyant than in households, where pessimism runs deep and joblessness shows few signs of easing.

Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production.

So that’s why things look good and the government is crowing about how they’ve saved us, saying it ‘could be worse.’ Every metric except the ones directly affecting you and I look good. The rich guys fire us, make more profit, shareholders give the thumbs up, and the cycle repeats. And much of this is currently funded by government dollars and low-interest loans from the Fed to people with first access to money. You and I can’t borrow money from the Fed at .25%, but the 18 banks allowed to do so are making money hand over fist now. While you and I sink into the debt and despair of joblessness.

Only a few scarier places to live currently

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

In America, according to the BLS, jobs-wise. And with rising unemployment come rising drug use and rising crime, the crime due to lack of monetary wealth as well as the drug use, sometimes both.

So, according to the BLS, we are currently # 367 out of 372 in unemployment in America. As in the 367th worst place to be finding a job right now. Figures may be subject to revision. And if you’ve been paying attention, revision is usually a large percentage downwards, so hope is not high.

The other day, a package left on my doorstep was opened, both inside and out. Nothing was taken, but still, shivers. Less than a week later, the store I had ordered that package for was broken in to and robbed. Today a very nervous looking person rang my doorbell and knocked. I, unfortunately, answered the door. He pretexted me with something about me asking his friend if he could repair my car at the shop, and then said that he could repair the car for cheaper. I of course said no to everything, but I shouldn’t have answered the door. Unfortunately, there are 6 windows on the door and all are very visible if you’re up at them, so not answering the door meant they could have just looked inside anyway. I say they because he went and got in the back seat of a car, and then another gentleman got in the back seat as well a minute or so later, and then they all drove off. Weird coincidence, or something more?

I hope I was not getting cased, but it was just too weird. The guy almost tripped and fell walking off my porch. Nervousness, or a fucking tweaker looking to rip me off to be able to score tomorrow? In any case, I am not very happy about the incident and wish we had better one-way curtains on the street- and driveway-facing windows of our house.

I hate to say it, but we live in a place where the front-door walk-in home-invasions, while not common, do happen once every year or so.

Maybe they were just lookin for work, maybe they’re desperate folk on the edge of becoming criminal, maybe they were tweakers looking for homes to hit. Either way it’s not a good sign, and feels even less good to be a part of it.

And it’s a societal problem, not a personal one for those out of work. Until we realize this, it will not really ever be any better, just less worse.

Headlies in the Media

Saturday, July 10th, 2010

Oops I meant headlines. See how easy it was to set up and destroy your expectations? And if you hadn’t read any further than the headline, then what?

Study finds bank bailouts profitable for U.S.

So reads the headline on Reuters from Wednesday. If all you read is the eyecatch, you get this:

A government program to bail out banks at the height of the financial crisis has so far turned a profit, according to a report by investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

The Capital Purchase Program, part of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, has generated an average return of 10 percent on the initial investment in 61 banks that have fully repaid the aid, said the report, issued on Wednesday.

Wow, so all those trillions of dollars in loans and loan guarantees are making us money? WOW! Who knew!

Oh, wait:

About $137 billion, or two-thirds of the initial government investment, has been paid back, with $65 billion still to be repaid, the report said.

Oh. 2/3rds of the first 200 billion have been paid back with profit. How much you wanna bet way more than that has already been lost on Fanny, Freddy, AIG etc… I’m not talking about the profit, I’m talking about the whole amount of this 200 billion facility has been lost and more on other bailouts.

So while the headlie may look good, the truth couched in the actual article is pretty piss poor. They say so far there’s been 10% interest and some losses (13 billion in profit minus 4 billion in missed interest payments and 2.3 billion in write-offs… which is actually less than 10 percent but they hope you’re not counting very well because you went through the American education system) and they’re expecting it to even out to 5% profits when the other 66 billion on this initial 200 billion is repaid. 5% should equal ten billion in profit… which they’re already close to…. So even this relatively good news on the smallest part of our bailout stinks.

Mish Bitching about the SEC since 2007

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Who Anointed Moody’s, Fitch, and the S&P?

The answer is the SEC. I have been harping about this since 2007!

And Mish has been. This was about the time I started reading his blog, so I remember this as a new post.

SEC staffers watched porn as economy crashed

SEC Knew About and Ignored Stanford Ponzi Scheme

Ratings agencies rolled over for Wall Street

And there is proof. Ouch. Hard core proof, 8-hours-a-day-filled-up-the-hard-drive-and-a-box-of-cds-and-dvds kinda proof.

‘ucking ‘ell

Monday, March 29th, 2010

It is likely to heighten Fucking’s fame, which is something Meindl, the town’s mayor, isn’t happy about, given the trouble the name has caused it over the years. “Twelve or 13 town signs have been stolen. We’ve taken to fixing them with concrete, welding and rivets.”

The Bavarian towns of Kissing and Petting have the same problem, as does the eastern German town of Pissing. But so far, there are no plans to name a beer after them.

There’s a little brouhaha over plans to brew a beer called Fucking Hell in Germany. However, they got the go ahead. The first bottles of Fucking Hell (which apparently means light ale brewed in the Austrian town of Fucking but who’s counting?) should be available this winter in Germany. Gotta import some of those!