There’s some scary-ass charts about half-way down this excellent post from Mish.
You’ll want to pay the most attention to the charts above the following quotes:
Over the Past 30 Years, We Have Become a Nation Gorged in Debt – To The Benefit of Financial Services Firms.
Private Label Mortgages (Those Securitized by Wall St.) Are 15% of All Mortgages, But Are 51% of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages.
Nearly 8% of Mortgages on 1-to-4-Family Homes Were Delinquent or in Foreclosure as of Q4 2008.
And, as if that shit weren’t scary enough, there’s this:
It appears the first-time subprime problem is behind us. However, Alt-A loans, which were basically designed to help ruin the lives of people with already good credit (sub-prime loans were intended to boost the credit of people with the capacity to pay a loan but bad credit history, Alt-A was for people with good credit but no capacity to repay the loan).
And for those of us in California? About $750 billion dollars in Option ARMs (whether subprime or Alt-A or prime) were written, all nearly at the peak of the bubble, and 58% of those are here at home in California – the most fucked state. Plenty of these were written by a company that is no longer with us, bought by Wells Fargo. Remember those record profits Wells claimed in Q1? I called bullshit then and I’ll call it again now – the only way they will survive is by fucking us further through bailouts or the abso-fucking-lutely retarded PPIP (where investors will pay for 7 cents of every dollar of toxic assets they buy from the banks, with you and I paying the other 93. Banks are, even now, lobbying to be able to buy these assets from one another – so all the big banks will bail each other out at 93% expense to the taxpayer – they’ve VERY eager to do this, which says to me that it will ONLY serve to fuck taxpayers).
Fannie-Mae and Freddie-Mac account for half of all US mortgages but only 25% of seriously delinquent loans. However, that 25% is enough to sink them again. And again, until we stop bailing them out. Half a million people a month or more are losing their jobs, there is no way this number is going to get anything but worse.
Option ARM delinquencies now account for 30+% of all mortgage delinquincies, and the growth curve is exponential and showing no signs of slowing.
And Vegas has passed Phoenix on the worst-price-drop-from-peak measure. Not a good place to be in, especially for Vegas. Will the economy recover in time to save it from the desert? Only time shall tell. 60+% of homeowners who bought in Vegas in the last 5 years are now underwater, and far more likely to walk away from their home – why? Because with the mortgage, property taxes and upkeep, they will literally NEVER be able to not owe money on their houses, even if they work until the day they die. Why not just walk away, rent for 50% of what they’re paying to ‘own’ their home, and be able to repair their credit and buy a new home for much cheaper in ten years.
And by pretty much any estimate of how bad things need to get before they get better (except estimates by people trying to sell you something – the larger the sale the more rosy their estimates of the future will be… but will only be rosy for them, if you buy, and not for you either way), we’re less than halfway to the total losses from this credit binge we’ve been on.
We’ve currently had about $1.2 trillion in losses from this bubble – but banks have only raised just over $1 trillion to cover them.
You and I, we are picking up that gap. And that $1.2 trillion loss is going to double before things get better.
Tags: bitch bitch bitch, depression 2.0, nerd with a capital N, no really we're really fucking fucked this time, sad, total cockup, trouble in paradise, wasted money, we're fucked, wild speculation, yes this is really how I amuse myself