In ten years, you’re going to have the equivalent of .5 terahertz in your pocket computer (that thing that you also use as a phone) in today’s processing ability (some amount of mips, wont actually be 500 GHz most likely, will be different technology, probably massively parallel). It’s likely to be so computationally dense you might not need a personal computer, you’ll probably have a central house computer, if everything hasn’t been moved into clouds for cooling efficiency.
Some of the video is a fairly well-worn retread of the familiar Kurzweil rhetoric. The Kurzweil Talk@Google. Then there’s new stuff, weird stuff. Butt stuff. Stuff about China, Iran. Very interesting. Exponential growth of cellphones: 10 years for first billion, 3 years for second, 1 year for the 3rd billion… now ubiquitous in Africa….
Future’s gonna be good, son, future’s gonna be good. Glad we have crackpots like Kurzweil husbanding the birth of the singularity.
I understand what big K means when he says “The pace of change will become incomprehensible to the merely human.” Currently most “big software” updates come about once a year. The biggest come once every few years, with Herr Bloatiest coming out once every 5 years or so with new technology (rather than new window dressing). Google comes out with software updates whenever – and usually quite fast. 2 versions of Chrome within 8 months, pretty quick for what isn’t really a flagship product – it’s definitely one of those things that older people don’t want to get used to. Some people are so resistant or unaware of change that they still use IE 5 or 6. Currently, humans write all the code, but Google writes extra code to debug the software semi-automatically (you’ll instantly know which function is broken) – they’ve gotten more out of what their system can do that others. That’s why they have a competitive advantage. Even moving as slowly as a corporate juggernaut, they still appear lithe and nimble compared to most large, established software houses. There will be a next Google, only it wont be a Google, it will be pregoogle < Google < GoogleNext, where GoogleNext is as at odds with Google as Google was at odds with the world when it first hit the wires. How quick will their development cycle be? How will mind
-computer interface technology and fuller human-form based interfaces speed up the development of software, especially video game software, and how will the interfaces effect the way they are utilized in the world, playing video games, making music, creating art?
Stuff you heard about 10 years ago as sci-fi is becoming reality today. Stuff you hear about today as sci-fi will be reality in 5 years. Then 2.5. Then 1.25.
At some point, we’ll have print-on-demand (assemble-on-demand?) computers – microprocessor technology will evolve so fast that you’ll just have a computer custom assembled from the latest blueprints, there wont be huge factories pumping out millions because by the time the first generation has finished printing the nth generation would be ready to fab.
I like how he ends it, “If you can hang in there, we may get to see the remarkable century ahead, and I look forward to working on it with you.” No doubt that he’ll be there.
Tags: hackers = tinkers, video, wild speculation, wow, yes please i'd like it now, yes this is really how I amuse myself